If the government fails to improve the governance and delivery of services to the masses, the next General Elections will not only determine the fate of political leadership but also the future of military leadership.
Recent promotions in the military and an expected constellation of the military hierarchy may be soothing for the incumbent government but the challenges of the international and domestic front are a permanent reality. A few successes at the foreign policy front, good strategy to deal with COVID-19 and persona of PM Imran Khan do not substantiate the overall success of the current regime.
On 25 November 2020, Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR), a public relations organization of Pakistan army issued a press release regarding the promotion of six major generals to lieutenant generals. Among them were Maj Gen Akhtar Nawaz, Maj Gen Sardar Hassan Azhar Hayat, Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor, Maj Gen Salman Fayyaz Ghani, Maj Gen Sarfraz Ali and Maj Gen Muhammad Ali. The most discussed promotion in the national media is that of Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor, who is promoted as Lt Gen and posted as IG Communication & Information Technology.
It was expected that the current Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence Lt Gen Faiz Hameed would be posted out as the Corp Commander, a precondition to becoming an army chief in Pakistan. However, the new postings gave birth to new speculations and killed a lot of rumours as well. It is now obvious that Lt Gen Faiz Hameed is going to stay as the ISI chief for one more year. It has also killed the rumours that the current chief of the army staff (COAS) was under the pressure of corps commanders for taking extension. It seems that General Qamar Javed Bajwa is to stay to complete his term of extension up to 2022.
Now the troika of generals seems aligned with what was predicted in July 2019 when Prime Minister Imran Khan held a meeting with COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa, DG ISI Lt Gen Faiz Hameed and DG ISPR Maj Gen Asif Gafoor to discuss the national security issues. A picture of the meeting was released either from the prime minister’s office or ISPR to send a message to the opposition forces that the civil government and military were on the same page.
Ostensibly the current promotions are a routine matter but experts of civil-military relations in Pakistan are angling a symbiotic relationship behind the scene. As the civil-military relations are at the most ideal position in the current times, the current hierarchy of military and its futuristic design of promotions denotes that the current hybrid regime of PM Khan’s government and military’s backing will last long. It may be bad news for the opposition forces, especially the current wave of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an alliance of 12 opposition parties, the current state of civil-military relations has ballooned the hopes of PTI supporters and people with sympathies for the military in Pakistan.
If General Qamar Bajwa completes his extension term and gets retired on 29 November 2022, the current DG ISI, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed may be appointed the new army chief. Although he is due to retire in April 2023, he may get the extension for 6 more months or a year as the General Elections in 2023 will be in the month of August. The government of Prime Minister Imran Khan will likely retain a general like Faiz Hameed as there are the optics that conveys good chemistry between PM Imran Khan and Lt General Faiz Hameed. Similarly, the newly promoted Lt Gen Asif Gafoor will be in the race of, first as DG ISI and later on as the COAS. He is due to retire in November 2024. It is also a considerable fact that 20 serving generals will be retired till November 2022, the month in which general Bajwa’s extension date will also expire.
Ideally, the wish list of PM Imran Khan may be complete to keep the civil-military relations at its ideal form. However, the combined challenges ahead of the hybrid regime are insurmountable if not impossible. The formidable foreign policy challenges are two; Kashmir and the changing landscape of the Middle East. In both the fronts, Pakistan civil and military diplomacy has been in limbo if not failed. As compared to the past, both the issues of Kashmir and striking a balance in the Middle East are mired with new challenges of post abrogation of article 370 scenario and Arab-Israel relations respectively. Both the issues demand radical changes in the foreign policy but Pakistan’s foreign policy is either not ready for such a radical change or does not have the capacity to cope up with the new challenges.
Another very heartening challenge for the hybrid regime is the economy. The mind-boggling inflation and price hike in the utility items has raised the concern of a common Pakistani which, even a military-backed government, may not be able to absorb. There is nothing tangible for a poor man even in the opposition rallies as none of the opposition leaders has substantially raised the issue of inflation and price hike. The current wave of opposition parties has created political hype to oust the government on the pretext of rigging in the General Elections in 2018. Despite no tangible challenge to the government from the opposition on the economic front, the moral campus of the hybrid regime is hurting among the masses.
Governance and deliverance to the masses have been the central concern of Pakistan’s electoral processes. The overt support of the military to the current government has now linked the future of military leadership with the electoral process of Pakistan. If the government fails to improve the governance and delivery of services to the masses, the next General Elections will not only determine the fate of political leadership but also the future of military leadership.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy and position of Regional Rapport.
